Thursday 30th April 2015

We’ve seen some good racing over the past couple of days and have plenty more to come later this week, the Guineas meeting takes place over the weekend whilst the Punchestown Festival is still upon, us. Douvan was very impressive again yesterday, trainer Willie Mullins says the horse is right up there with the best he’s ever trained.

I’ve had a bet today and gone with some EW value, the bet will either be brilliant or rather foolish, I don’t think there will be any in-between.

In the 5:30 at Punchestown Hurricane Fly & Jezki meet again for the umpteenth time and it’s easy to think the result is likely more of the same with Hurricane Fly winning. However today’s race is over three miles and a significant step up in trip for the pair who normally meet over the minimum distance.

Jezki didn’t look like he wanted to go much further than two miles four at Aintree and the obvious route for the Fly would be to have a go at two miles four but a full mile further in one go must raise some questions marks. At their current prices I’m happy to take them on and find out the answer.

Now that Dedigout has been pulled out who was the clear EW bet we need to look elsewhere. It’s not a race full of strength down the card and in fairness the two market leaders don’t have a huge amount to beat but Lieutenant Colonel is the EW selection.

I can forgive his World Hurdle effort at Cheltenham where he went off a short 7-1 shot, the horse was having his first run since Christmas and possibly was a bit fresh going into the race where he failed to settle. Lieutenant Colonel also had first time cheekpieces on too, this likely didn’t help and made him pull hard, the headgear is removed today.

I hope connections have the horse ridden up with the pace and make this a true test as they did when winning the Christmas Hurdle, a repeat of that effort should see him run a decent race. If Jezki & the Fly don’t get home Lieutenant Colonel looks the horse to side with, the 10-1 EW looks worth a punt.

I’ve also had a small saver on Thousand Stars at 14-1.