Not getting involved at Newmarket Future Champions Day yesterday was a very good decision, the results were freakish due to the soft going. It’s highly unlikely the form will stand up long term, I would put a line through the entire meeting.
As mentioned yesterday soft / heavy going on the flat at this time of the year is a recipe for disaster, it’s hard enough not knowing if horses are over the top at this time of the year whilst the bad going at today’s Champions Day just adds to the difficulties.
It’s a great day of racing though at Ascot it’s just a shame it won’t be a level playing field, previous soft or heavy ground form is a must if looking for a few selections.
Eton Forever 12-1 EW in the Qipco Champions Sprint 2:20 Ascot is a horse who will have no problem with the going. The Roger Varian horse is best fresh and loves to get his toe in, coming here off the back of a 112 day break looks ideal whilst the yard are in fantastic form.
If this race was ran on good ground I don’t think Eton Forever would be anything like good enough to get involved and G Force would be a good thing however conditions will be a big leveller this afternoon and horses will need to stay further than the distance their running over.
Eton Forever has never run over 6 furlongs before and would likely be outpaced on any normal day but runners can’t go flat out as they won’t get home this afternoon.
Ascot has a uphill finish this will play to the strengths of the selection, Eton Forever should be finishing best of all providing jockey Andrea Atzeni can keep within striking distance of the leaders going into the final furlong. It’s possible he still might not be good enough but I would much prefer to take a chance on something at a nice price who will have no problem with the going than a shorter priced horse that has never ran on anything worse than good to soft.
The other horse to look at in the race is Jack Dexter who looked to be coming back to form last time out after a disappointing season, Jack Dexter will also love the heavy going and you could do worse than a small saver on him at 13-2.
3:30 Ascot Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is very open if market leaders Charm Spirit & Night Of Thunder don’t handle conditions. Both do have some soft ground form but each horse has good turn of foot and hasn’t faced boggy stamina testing ground as per today.
For that reason a horse that will have no problem with the going and stays further than the actual distance is Top Notch Tonto priced at 14-1 EW. Second in this race last year Tonto started the season slowly but has ran two decent races of late on ground that would have been far too quick for him.
Trained by Brian Ellison Top Notch Tonto is gorgeous looking horse that has a huge following.
The concern for Tonto is the lack of obvious pace as he would need a strong gallop and that’s far from guaranteed. However he loves bad ground and should be staying on well, probably more of a place chance but there is far worse 14-1 shots than him this afternoon.
Over at Cheltenham in the 3:10 at a shorter price than I normally like “even money” Calipto is highly thought of by trainer Paul Nicholls and has reportedly done very well over the summer. Receiving weight today he’s taken to turn the Triumph Hurdle form around with Tiger Roll.