Cheltenham Festival Day 1

Just eight horses line up for this year’s Supreme Hurdle. Appreciate It, is the odds-on favourite, but I’m taking him on and think we can get him beat. The rain that came down will be in his favour, he’s not for me though.

To win this, Appreciate It will have to run around 10 seconds faster than he has done before based on his winning times in Ireland. He’s also a 7yo that might not have as much improvement left in him as per some of his younger rivals. I also don’t like the fact he came from a p2p background. Appreciate it will surely be better over further in time. His wins have come in the mud, and it’s possible he might get done for speed.

I’ve backed Blue Lord EW and think he’s the value bet of the race priced at 10-1. Blue Lord was held up behind Ballyadam and Appreciate It in the Grade 1 Novice at Leopardstown. Both the named horses got first run on Blue Lord, but he was running them down towards the finish.

The stiffer track will help Blue Lord, I’d be surprised if he’s not ridden handier this time, and he can reward an EW bet. I’ve also had a win saver on Metier. He could be the quickest horse in the race.

Shishkin will win the Arkle, but he’s one for the pro backers only. I’ll take Captain Guinness to follow him home or pick up the pieces if anything happens to Shishkin. Captain Guinness can be backed at 8-1 EW, two places only or in the market without Shishkin.

The mares’ should dominate the Champion Hurdle with Honeysuckle likely hard to beat. Epatante has to prove her under par effort last time was down to a back problem. She was super impressive last year and can give Honeysuckle something to think about if running her race.

Mares’ hurdle at 3:40, Concertista should have too much speed for Roksana. She sets a very high standard and wouldn’t be out of place in the Champion Hurdle. Concertista will take some beating. At an EW price, Great White Shark priced at 18-1 could outrun her odds.

Saint Sam brings Grade 1 form to a Grade 3 race in the Boodles and must run well at 5-1. I think he should be shorter in the betting.

In the lucky last, I hope David Pipe’s Remastered runs a huge race, perhaps Next Destination looks the most likely winner.