Saturday 4th September 2014

Up to two inches of rain is forecast throughout the UK this afternoon and in places has already hit, going changes will be the order of the day at the majority of meetings.

The wet weather makes life tough for punting, the going although decent at the moment will likely ease as the day goes on and could be soft by the time racing gets under the way.

It makes sense to go steady today and look for horses that handle a bit of cut.

Not a huge amount stands out in fact I’m struggling to find a selection that I really like, however I have placed just an average EW bet on Danzeno in the 3:15 at Ascot. I’ve mentioned before I believe the Michael Appleby trained horse could easily end up as a Group 2 runner and even be Group 1 class in the future, he’s only a 3yo and still green.

We supported Danzeno last time out at Doncaster, the horse looked home for all money but threw the race away by hanging in the last 100 yards. Today’s shorter trip by half a furlong will suit and ensure it’s more of a genuine speed test whilst we also have the bonus of Danzeno handling soft ground.

The race is one of the best Group 3 sprints I’ve seen for a while, the likes of Reckless Abandon & Tropics have Group 1 form but might have reached their ceiling of ability.

I know trainer Ed Walker rates Lightning Moon very highly and he could be anything but this might be a big ask on just his 3^rd start. At a nice price Lucky Kristale could easily come good, she ran much better last time out and is now dropped to her correct trip plus receives the filly’s allowance.

I think both of the above will go well but I’m sticking with Danzeno and hope the penny is starting to drop plus Andrew Mullen can keep him straight, also note the selection does have to carry a 3lb penalty so there will be no room for error.

At the price of 7-1 he looks ok value and is worth a few quid EW.

I’m leaving it at that, but will write a short piece for one of the best fixtures over the year at Longchamp tomorrow. The Arc de Triomphe is the highlight but the Group 1 Abbaye, The Qatar Prix du Cadran and the Lagardere are all outstanding races.