A horse I’ve been waiting for runs this afternoon in the 2:10 at Ludlow, Kingsmere priced at 11-2.
The Henry Daly trainer runner doesn’t seem to take a huge amount of racing but tends to win one race each season whilst I think his run at Aintree “October” was a seasonal pipe opener in prep for something else. The trip of two miles five was very much on the sharp side plus the horse wasn’t given a hard time and was seen running on strongly at the finish.
I’ve been waiting for Kingsmere to be stepped up in trip and that happens today, 3 miles is perfect but this race is a chase and not over hurdles as I hoped. Kingsmere is not great over a fence, has made numerous race losing errors when tanking along in better events than today's.
On the plus side betting is favourable, Kingsmere has been backed down from 9-1 and the horse is running off a rating he can win off.
If Jake Greenall “won on him in the past” gets a clear round of jumping out of Kingsmere I would expect him to be in the first 3, if this race was over hurdles against the same opposition I would be more confident and place a fair EW bet.
However I can’t let him go un-backed this afternoon as I’ve been waiting a long time for him to run and he’s very good on his day, the price of 11-2 is worth a few quid EW.
Fingers crossed he jumps.